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Probability makes Arsenal favourites to lift the Premier League title

All data in this article provided by Opta.

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It was a historic win for Arsenal in the North London Derby as they defeated Tottenham 2-0, taking them eight points clear at the top of the Premier League table. This win has now made the Gunners the favorites to clinch their first title since the 2003-04 season, with a 51.4% chance of winning according to the Opta.

This is a significant change in the favorites for the title, as Manchester City, who suffered a loss in the Manchester Derby against United, have slipped down to 45.4%. This is the first time since the season began that Pep Guardiola’s side are no longer the Opta’s favorites to win the title.

Arsenal’s eight-point lead over City is the biggest lead in the competition when playing the same number of games as the side below them since the final day of the 2003-04 season, when they won the title by 11 points. Furthermore, the Gunners’ 47 points from 18 Premier League games this season is the most points they’ve won at this stage of a campaign in their league history.

Despite heading into the World Cup break on the back of a 2-1 defeat against Brentford, Opta  still had Manchester City as strong favorites for the title, giving them a 75% chance of winning as games restarted on Boxing Day 2022.

But Arsenal’s lead over City has now grown to eight points, and they are now unbeaten since the resumption of club football while City dropped valuable points in a 1-1 draw against Everton, and have looked sluggish and vulnerable in two consecutive defeats in all competitions against Southampton and Manchester United.

The task ahead for Arsenal doesn’t get any easier as they welcome Manchester United to the Emirates next weekend. Manchester United have won nine consecutive matches in all competitions and will have title aspirations of their own, despite Opta currently rating that possibility at just 2.7%.

Despite the task ahead not getting any easier for Arsenal as they welcome Manchester United, Opta has them as comfortable favorites for that tie at 43.7%. It will be an important match for the Gunners as they look to maintain their lead at the top of the table, while Manchester City try to bounce back against Wolves.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season unfolds for both Arsenal and Manchester City as they battle for the Premier League title. One thing is for sure, it promises to be an exciting finish to the season for fans of both clubs and for fans of the Premier League as a whole.


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